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Initially, the former US president appeared to embrace a strong approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "serious ramifications" last August if Putin carried on hindering ceasefire talks, he eventually enacted major sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially affected Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his latest comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's plan would effectively benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively compromise that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, the former president persists to treat the war as a mere border issue, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. But, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a damaged area of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in status the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would force the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously undermined.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that are a key impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate additional conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to cut the scale of its military from their existing large number soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no similar constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "All extremist belief system and practices must be opposed and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal has Russia pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar accords in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to respect the nation's borders in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the initiative warns of a "immediate coordinated armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the details include unclear to concerning. The initiative would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened military, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

An additional parallel deal according to sources would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet in contrast to a capable national defense – Ukraine's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, including Trump, to react with force to Russia's attacks, something they have {not